Can Big Brown go the distance?

It might sound like a crazy thing to do, but betting against Big Brown in the Belmont Stakes on June 7 might be a real good move. Big Brown is only getting 2/7 for the Belmont, so it would take a big bet to make any money. He may be a heavy favorite to win, but there are a couple of issues that could stop his run for the Triple Crown in its tracks.

First off, Big Brown has developed a crack in one his front hoofs. He has had problems with them in the past, and if he’s not 100% then I doubt that he can win. The second potential obstacle is the distance of the track. Brown is not a distance-bred horse, and the Belmont is the longest race in the Triple Crown. He’s going up against a field of horses bred for long races, such as the mile and a half track at the Belmont.

The Triple Crown is about to embrace its feminine side.

Todd Pletcher has confirmed that Rags to Riches will run in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes. The prize chestnut filly has won each of her last four races, including the prestigious Kentucky Oaks, and Pletcher is confident she has a chance to take New York by storm.

Winning the race, on the other hand, appears to be beyond even Pletcher’s dreams. Even though Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense will not be in the field, Curlin will be there after taking first place at the Preakness. “I would certainly identify Curlin as the horse for everyone to beat,” Pletcher told the Associated Press on Tuesday. “If I was anybody else in the race, I wouldn’t be excited that she was in there running against me.”

Entirely reasonable. The last filly to claim the Belmont Stakes was Tanya in 1905. Pletcher himself has yet to train Triple Crown winner in 28 attempts. And Rags to Riches will have an unfamiliar (and yet to be named) jockey in the saddle on Saturday; John Velazquez will be atop Slew’s Tizzy, while No. 2 choice Garrett Gomez will riding Hard Spun.

Having said that, Rags to Riches is no ordinary horse. She was born to run the mile-and-a-half; her sire was 1992 Belmont winner A.P. Indy, and his father was the incomparable Seattle Slew, the 1977 Triple Crown sensation. For good measure, her brother is 2006 Belmont champion Jazil.

This is shaping up to be a field of eight, and with no Triple Crown on the line, Rags to Riches will be an easy fan favorite. But Curlin is very likely to spoil the party. He is expected to carry a lot of chalk into Saturday’s race, and for good reason: four wins in five career races, all as a 3-year-old, and a third-place finish at the Kentucky Derby.

For now, we’ll put Rags to Riches in the Danica Patrick file: definitely talented, regardless of gender, but yet to defeat the big boys.

For all your Belmont Stakes odds, check this sportsbook out. (And for more horse racing and sports betting information, check this out!)

Was Jazil just another run-of-the-mill Belmont Stakes champion?

You might draw that conclusion, based on the props list for Saturday’s Run for the Carnations. One of the more compelling items on the menu asks if the 2007 winner will post a faster time than Jazil’s 2:27.86 result at the 2006 Belmont. “Yes” and “No” are both pegged at –120.

Jazil, still racing as a 4-year-old, isn’t the fastest horse of the bunch – his career-high Beyer figure is 97. But after a slow pace to open last year’s Belmont, Jazil showed off his preferred closing style, catching and passing Bluegrass Cat to win by 1-1/4 lengths. Jazil’s finishing kick was enough for him to post the fourth-fastest Belmont time over the last 12 races.

There are some much quicker horses on tap for New York. Although Street Sense has opted out, Curlin and Hard Spun are pointed squarely at the Belmont. Hard Spun (107 Beyer) is a very fleet frontrunner, while Curlin (103 Beyer) is one of the most highly touted thoroughbreds to come down the pike in some time. They combined to run the 2007 Preakness in 1:53:46, the fastest finish there since 1996.

Weather will either help or hurt the horses on Saturday. The forecast for New York at press time called for partly cloudy conditions, with highs in the mid-80s Fahrenheit. That should create a fast track, especially with the possibility of some thundershowers the day before.

Five other horses were known to be pointed at Belmont at press time: Imawildandcrazyguy, Slew’s Tizzy, Tiago, Digger and Time Squared. Tiago won the Santa Anita Derby with a 100 Beyer figure; he will be fresh after finishing seventh at the Kentucky Derby and skipping the Preakness. In a field of seven, maybe eight horses, Tiago should keep the Belmont’s “Big Two” honest enough to produce a swift time on Saturday.

Online horse racing and Belmont Stakes odds at Bodog!

This one’s for the ladies.

Churchill Downs is about more than just mint julep and the Kentucky Derby. There’s also the Kentucky Oaks, the premier race on the calendar for 3-year-old fillies. Fourteen spots are available in the starting field, and at press time, there were at least 15 horses lining up for a shot at the $500,000 purse.

The easy favorite on the futures market is Rags to Riches at 3-2. This Todd Pletcher-trained chestnut filly certainly has the pedigree (sired by A.P. Indy, the 1992 Horse of the Year), and she took first place in all three of her races this year, including the Grade I Las Virgenes and the Grade I Santa Anita Oaks. However, Rags to Riches has yet to race against the level of competition she will encounter in Louisville on May 4.

That competition would have been even stiffer had Magnificence not come up with heat in her ankle after posting an amazing 109 Beyer figure in winning the Grade III Santa Paula Stakes. Folk may pose a challenge should she enter the race; her status remained uncertain as recently as last week, making the “field” at 20-1 an intriguing value choice for any handicapper with some Folk foreknowledge.

The next horse on the odds list, and the apparent No. 2 consensus choice of horseplayers, is another Todd Pletcher entry: Octave at 6-1. This roan filly knows plenty about second place – that was her result in each of her last four races, including last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The best value on the market may be the Juvenile winner. Dreaming of Anna (30-1) had been pointed elsewhere after some poor results as a 3-year-old, but her recent work has been so pleasing that trainer Wayne Catalano appears ready to change his mind. Dreaming of Anna was 9-1 in Pool 2 of the Oaks Future Wager, so expect her current odds to get a lot shorter.

History sure has funny ways of repeating itself.

Back in the Civil War, an African-American slave named Charles Curlin fought on the Confederate side. Curlin was from Kentucky. Now, his great-great grandson is part-owner of the favorite to win the 2007 Kentucky Derby. The horse’s name? Curlin, of course.

This is a factoid you’re bound to hear repeated over and over again on the Triple Crown trail, if you haven’t already. But Curlin is more than just a human/equine interest story. The chestnut colt deserves his status as the 4-1 chalk to win the Derby. His prep races have been nothing short of fantastic. Curlin posted an eye-popping 101 Beyer speed rating during February’s maiden win at Gulfstream, took the Grade III Rebel Stakes by 5-1/4 lengths, then crushed the field by a record 10-1/2 lengths at the Grade II Arkansas Derby this past Saturday at Oaklawn Park. Curlin managed a 103 (!) Beyer figure at that event.

Curlin was already among the top faves at 6-1 to win the Derby before claiming the $1-million prize at Oaklawn. But the results from Saturday’s Grade I Blue Grass at Keeneland helped push Curlin to the top of the odds list. Street Sense finished second to Dominican to slip behind Curlin at 5-1; Great Hunter came in fifth to fall to 14-1. Those results should be taken with a grain of salt, however, as they came on a Polytrack surface.

The knock on Curlin at this point is that he only has three races under his saddle. History shows that no horse since Regret in 1915 has won the Derby with so little preparation. And if you really want to put a damper on this lovefest, Apollo was the last horse to win the Run for the Roses without having raced as a 2-year-old. That was at the 1882 Derby. But these are red herrings for handicappers. How often does a horse as impressive as Curlin come along? Maybe once every 100 years.