Betting on the Kentucky Derby: Best-Prepped Horse Best Bet to Win?
Writing by admin on Thursday, 19 of April , 2007 at 6:47 pm
History sure has funny ways of repeating itself.
Back in the Civil War, an African-American slave named Charles Curlin fought on the Confederate side. Curlin was from Kentucky. Now, his great-great grandson is part-owner of the favorite to win the 2007 Kentucky Derby. The horse’s name? Curlin, of course.
This is a factoid you’re bound to hear repeated over and over again on the Triple Crown trail, if you haven’t already. But Curlin is more than just a human/equine interest story. The chestnut colt deserves his status as the 4-1 chalk to win the Derby. His prep races have been nothing short of fantastic. Curlin posted an eye-popping 101 Beyer speed rating during February’s maiden win at Gulfstream, took the Grade III Rebel Stakes by 5-1/4 lengths, then crushed the field by a record 10-1/2 lengths at the Grade II Arkansas Derby this past Saturday at Oaklawn Park. Curlin managed a 103 (!) Beyer figure at that event.
Curlin was already among the top faves at 6-1 to win the Derby before claiming the $1-million prize at Oaklawn. But the results from Saturday’s Grade I Blue Grass at Keeneland helped push Curlin to the top of the odds list. Street Sense finished second to Dominican to slip behind Curlin at 5-1; Great Hunter came in fifth to fall to 14-1. Those results should be taken with a grain of salt, however, as they came on a Polytrack surface.
The knock on Curlin at this point is that he only has three races under his saddle. History shows that no horse since Regret in 1915 has won the Derby with so little preparation. And if you really want to put a damper on this lovefest, Apollo was the last horse to win the Run for the Roses without having raced as a 2-year-old. That was at the 1882 Derby. But these are red herrings for handicappers. How often does a horse as impressive as Curlin come along? Maybe once every 100 years.
Category: Online Horse Racing
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